中共中央宣传部委托新华通讯社主办

中国如何维护产业链供应链的稳定和竞争力

2020-06-09 16:05
来源:时事资料手册

倪红福(中国社会科学院经济研究所副研究员);

XUJINHAI(GUOJIAKAIFANGDAXUEJIANGSHI)

 

DANGQIAN,QUANQIUFANWEINEIXINGUANFEIYANYIQINGYIRANWEIDEDAOYOUXIAOKONGZHI,JINYIBUZENGJIALE黄金配资 HUANJINGDEBUQUEDINGXINGYINSU,YOUXIAOWEIHUZHONGGUOCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANDEWENDINGHEJINGZHENGLI,SHIWEIHUJINGJIFAZHANHESHEHUIWENDINGDEGUANJIANZHIJU,YESHIQUEBAOGUOJIAANQUANYUYINGDUIFENGXIANDEZHONGYAOSHOUDUAN。

什么是产业链

国债十年CHANYELIAN(HUOGONGYINGLIAN)SHIZHIYUANLIAOGONGYINGSHANG、ZHIZAOSHANG、FENXIAOSHANG、LINGSHOUSHANGHEZUIZHONGXIAOFEIZHEDENGSUOYOUCANYUSHENGCHAN、LIUTONGHEXIAOFEIGUOCHENGDEJINGJIZHUTI,YIJIZHUTIZHIJIANDEYAOSULIUDONGHEJINGJIHUODONGDELIANTIAO。JINNIANLAI,QUANQIUCHANYELIANYICHENGWEISHIJIEJINGJIDEZHUDAOXINGTEDIAN,JINRUSHENGCHANGUOCHENGRIYISUIPIANHUAHEFENSANHUADEQUANQIUJIAZHILIANSHIDAI。SHENGCHANZHEZAISHENGCHANLIANXULIESHENGCHANGUOCHENGZHONGFUJIAJIAZHI,YIZHONGJIANPINXINGSHICHUANDIDAOXIAYIGESHENGCHANZHE,JINGGUODUOJIEDUANSHENGCHANHEDUOCIKUAJINGJIAOYI,ZUIHOUDAODAZUIZHONGXUQIUZHE,CUCHENGLEQUANQIUNAIZHIYIGUOZHINEIDEDALIANGZHONGJIANPINMAOYI,JUTONGJIQUANQIUMAOYIZHONGJIN2/3SHUYUZHONGJIANPINMAOYI。

全球出口中的期货配资 增加值率(DVAR)的变化

注:DVAR下降,表示全球分工越来越细化。作者根据WWZ方法(最新全球价值链核算方法)和2000年-2014年全球投入产出数据测算得到。

QUANQIUCHANYELIANJISHIJIEDAILAILEJUDADEXIAOYI,TONGSHIYECHANSHENGLEYIXIEFENGXIAN。YIDANMOUYISHENGCHANHUANJIECHUXIANWEIXIANJIANGHUICHANSHENGLIANSUOFANYING,ZHENGGECHANYELIAN、JIAZHILIAN、GONGYINGLIANDOUHUIZAODAOPOHUAI。GUOQU30NIANYILAI,SHIJIEGEGUOTEBIESHIZHONGGUODEQIYECANYUQUANQIUJIAZHILIANDECHENGDUYUELAIYUESHEN。QUANQIUCHUKOUZHONGDE期货配资 ZENGJIAZHILV(DVAR)CONG2000NIANDAO2008NIANCHENGKUAISUXIAJIANGQUSHI,QUANQIUFENGONGYUELAIYUEXIHUA;2008NIANQUANQIUJINRONGWEIJIHOU,DVARKUAISUSHANGSHENG,ERHOU2NIANYOUCHUXIANKUAISUXIAJIANG;DAO2012NIANHOU,DVARJIHUCHUYUPINGWENJIEDUAN。TONGSHI,QIYEYUNZUO、MAOYIZHENGCE、DIYUANZHENGZHI、ZIRANZAIHAIHEYIQINGDENGYINQIDEGONGYINGLIANZHONGDUANFENGXIANSHIJIANSHIYOUFASHENG,JIJIEDIANQIYEHESHEHUIJUNDAILAILEJUDASUNSHI。RU2018NIANMEIGUODUIZHONGXINGTONGXUNDEXINPIANGONGYINGJINYUN,SHIDEZHONGXINGTONGXUNXIANRUKUNJING;2011NIANRIBENDONGBEIFASHENGDIZHENJIERYINQIHAIXIAO,YOUYUDANGDISHIRIBENZHONGYAODEZHONGJIANCHANPINSHENGCHANJIDI,DAOZHIRIBENQICHECHANYEZAOSHOUZHONGCHUANG。

理性认识我国产业链供应链的风险因素

WEIHUZHONGGUOCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANDEWENDINGHEJINGZHENGLI,YINGLIXINGSHIBIEDANGQIANJIJINHOUKENENGHUIYINGXIANGDAOCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANWENDINGDEFENGXIANYINSU。CONGMUQIANLAIKAN,YIXIAJIGEZHONGYAOYINSUHUIDUIZHONGGUOCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANWENDINGDAILAIJIAODADEFENGXIAN。

国债十年(YI)XINGUANFEIYANYIQINGYINGXIANGBURONGHUSHI

国债十年SUIRANZHONGGUOJINGGUOJIANKUZHUOJUEDEKANGYI,GEXINGGEYEYIJINGLUXUFUGONGFUCHAN,JINGJISHEHUIYEZAIZHUJIANHUIFU,DANSHIYEYINGKANDAOQUANQIUYIQINGSHANGWEIDEDAOGENBENEZHI,YOUQISHIOUMEIDENGFADAGUOJIA,YIQINGFANGKONGRENWUYIRANJIANJU。YINCI,SHOUHAIWAIYIQINGYINGXIANG,WOGUOCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANDANGQIANHUISHOUDAOJIAODAYINGXIANG。YIBANLAISHUO,XINGUANYIQINGJIANGCONGQIYEDAOBI、CHANYEWAIQIANHEZHONGJIANPINJINCHUKOUZHONGDUANSANGEWEIDUDUICHANYEGONGYINGLIANCHANSHENGYINGXIANG。YISHI,ZAIYIQINGYINGXIANGXIA,QUANQIUGONGYINGLIANZHONGYIDAIGONGZHIZAOSHANGWEIDAIBIAODEWOGUOQIYEMIANLINSHENGCHANZILIAO、LAODONGLI、WULIUDENGYINSUDAOZHIDESHENGCHANZHONGDUANFENGXIAN、DINGDANYANQIDEWEIYUEFENGXIAN、ZIJINLIANDUANLIE、黄金配资 LIUDONGSHOUZUDENGDUOZHONGYALI,DIEJIAXIAOYINGXIAJIANGJIDAYINGXIANGQIYESHENGCUNHEWENDINGJINGYING。ERSHI,SHOUZHEICIYIQINGDEYINGXIANG,YIXIEGUOJIADEZHENGJIEHEQIYEJIARENWEI,QUANQIUGONGYINGLIANCUNZAIWAIBUTUFAFENGXIAN,JIBIANCUNZAIZHONGGUOZHEIYANGWENDINGDE“SHIJIEGONGCHANG”HECHAODADESHICHANGGUIMO,RENGBUNENG“BAJIDANFANGDAOYIGELANZILI”。SANSHI,YIQINGQUANQIUMANYANJIANGDAOZHIWOGUOZHONGJIANPINJINCHUKOUDAFUXIAJIANGSHENZHIZHONGDUAN。YIFANGMIAN,SHOUYIQINGDEYINGXIANG,ZHONGGUOQIYETINGGONGTINGCHAN,ZHONGGUODEZHONGJIANPINGONGJINENGLIXIAJIANG,CONGGUOWAIJINKOUZHONGJIANPINDEXUQIUYEHUIXIAJIANG。LINGYIFANGMIAN,GUOWAIYIQINGDEMANYAN,GUOWAIQIYEDETINGCHANHETINGGONG,KENENGDAOZHIGUOWAIDUIZHONGGUODEZHONGJIANPINXUQIUXIAJIANG,TONGSHIGUOWAIQIYEXIANGZHONGGUOTIGONGZHONGJIANPINDEGONGJINENGLIYEHUIXIAJIANG。

(ER)NIQUANQIUHUAHEQUANQIUMAOYIBAOHUZHUYIYOUSUOTAITOU

国债十年2008NIANJINRONGWEIJIYIHOU,NIQUANQIUHUAHEQUANQIUMAOYIBAOHUZHUYIYOUSUOTAITOU,YOUQISHIZIYINGGUOTUOOU、TELANGPUSHANGTAI,NIQUANQIUHUAQUSHIJINYIBUZAIQUANQIUMANYAN。HENDUOGUOJIAWEILEWEIHUBENGUODEDANBIANLIYI,CAIQUGEZHONGMAOYIBAOHUZHUYICUOSHI,DUIQUANQIUCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANWENDINGZAOCHENGHENDAYINGXIANG。ZHONGGUOZUOWEIQUANQIUCHANYELIANDEZHONGYAOZUCHENGBUFEN,QUANQIUCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANWENDINGSHOUDAOWEIXIE,YEHUIBOJIWOGUOCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIAN。JINNIANLAI,OUMEIGEGUOZHENGFUYUELAIYUEQIUZHUYUMAOYIBAOHUZHUYIHE“ZHONGZHENZHIZAOYE”JIHUA。BIRU,AOBAMAZHENGFUJIUXIANGLIYONGCIJIJINGJIJIHUA,GULIZHIZAOYEHUILIU,YIZHONGZHENMEIGUOZHIZAOYE。TELANGPUSHANGTAIYILAI,GONGRANSIHUIXIEYI(TPP、BALIQIHOUXIEYIDENG),GAODIAOTUIQUN(LIANHEGUOJIAOKEWENZUZHI、LIANHEGUORENQUANLISHIHUIDENGZHONGYAO黄金配资 ZUZHI),DUIZHONGGUOFAQIMAOYIZHAN,ZAIJINGJI、ZHENGZHI、JUNSHIDENGGEGEFANGMIANDUIZHONGGUOJINXINGQUANMIANEZHI,YIJINGJIMINZUZHUYIDUIKANGJINGJIQUANQIUHUACHAOLIU,YONGDANBIANZHUYIHEBAOHUZHUYIDUIKANGDUOBIANZHUYIHEZIYOUMAOYI。ZUOWEISHIJIEZUIDADEHUOWUMAOYIJINKOUGUOHECHUKOUGUO,MAOYIBAOHUZHUYIHENIQUANQIUHUASHITOUHUIDUIWOGUODEJINCHUKOUDAILAIHENDAFUMIANYINGXIANG,YINGXIANGDAOZHONGGUOCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANWENDING。

(SAN)GUANJIANHEXINJISHUYOUDAITISHENG

GUANJIANHEXINJISHUSHIGUOZHIZHONGQI。YIGEGUOJIAZAIGUANJIANHEXINJISHUSHANGYOUMEIYOUZHUDAOQUANHEKONGZHILI,ZHIJIEGUANHUYIGUOCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANDEWENDINGHEANQUAN。ZIXINZHONGGUOCHENGLIYILAI,WOGUOLILAIZHONGSHIDUIGUANJIANHEXINJISHUDEGONGGUAN,QUDELEHUIHUANGDECHENGJIU。DANZHENGTIERYAN,ZHONGGUOMUQIANYIXIEGUANJIANHEXINCHANPINRENGRANGAODUYILAIJINKOU,RUGAODUANSHUKONGJICHUANG、XINPIAN、GUANGKEJI、CAOZUOXITONG、YILIAOQIXIE、FADONGJI、GAODUANCHUANGANQIDENGDENG,CUNZAIKABOZIDEWENTI,ZHONGGUOZHIZAOZAIZHEIXIELINGYUDEYANFAHESHENGCHANYIRANCUNZAIJIXUGONGPODEJISHUNANGUAN。ZHONGXINGHUAWEISHIJIANDAILAIDEQIFA,BUJINJINZAIYURANGGUORENCHONGFENRENSHIDAOWOGUOZAIGUANJIANHEXINJISHUFANGMIANDEBUZU,GENGZHONGYAODESHIJIANDINGLEGONGKEGUANJIANHEXINJISHUDEJUEXIN。RUGUOMEIYOUGUANJIANHEXINJISHU,GUOJIADEMINGMENJIUNIEZAIBIEGUOSHOULI,KENENGYINWEIMAOYIMOCAHUOZHEQITAWAIZAIFENGXIANYINSUZAOCHENGCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANDEDUANLIE,JINERYINGXIANGJINGJIFAZHANHESHEHUIWENDINGDEDAJU。

维护中国产业链供应链的稳定和竞争力的政策建议

国债十年ZHUNQUEBAWOZHONGGUOCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANWENDINGMIANLINDEFENGXIAN,YINGDUOCUOBINGJU、JINGZHUNFALI,TISHENGZHONGGUOCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANDEWENDINGHEJINGZHENGLI。

国债十年(YI)JIJIPEIYU期货配资 CHANYELIAN,FAZHANQUYUJIAZHILIAN

SHIJIECHANPINDECHANYELIANZHUYAOYIMEIGUO、DEGUO、RIBENHEZHONGGUODENGDAGUOWEIHEXIN,BIANYUANGUOJIAZHUDONGQIANRUDAOZHEIXIEHEXINCHANYELIAN,BINGZHUJIANXINGCHENGLEBEIMEI、OUZHOUHEYAZHOUDEQUYUJIAZHILIAN。JINNIANLAI,MEIGUODANBIANZHUYIHEMAOYIBAOHUZHUYITAITOU,QUANQIUJIAZHILIANFENGONGGEJUBEIPODIAOZHENG,YIQINGJIANGJINYIBUJIASUZHONGMEIZHIJIANDEJINGJITUOGOU。QUANQIUJIAZHILIANCHENGSUODUANQUSHI,ERQUYUJIAZHILIANZEZAIJIAQIANG。WOGUOYEYINGSHUNYINGZHEIYIQUSHI,SHISHI“YIDAIYILU”CHANGYI,ZHUDONGJIAQIANGYUZHOUBIANGUOJIADEJINGJIHEZUO,XINGCHENGQUYUJIAZHILIAN。JIJIPEIYUBENTUQIYECHENGWEIJIAZHILIANDE“LIANZHU”,CHENGWEI期货配资 CHANYEZHUANYIDEZUZHIZHEHEZHILIZHE。DONGBUYANHAIDIQUZHUYAOCONGSHIYANFA、XIAOSHOUDENGJIAZHILIANDEGAODUANHUANJIE,DIFUJIAZHIDELAODONGMIJIXINGHUANJIEXIANGZHONGXIBUNEILUDIQUZHUANYIHEPEIZHI,ZHEIJIYOULIYUDONGBUYANHAIDIQUSHIXIANCHANYESHENGJI,YOUWEIZHONGXIBUDIQUTENGCHULECHANYEFAZHANDESHICHANGHEZENGZHANGKONGJIAN。

国债十年(ER)JIAQIANGQUANQIUFANGYIHEGONGYINGLIANANQUANHEZUO,WEIHUQUANQIUCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANWENDING

国债十年LUOSHIG20LINGDAORENFENGHUILIANHEKANGYISHENGMING,QUANQIUGEGUOGONGTONGKANGJIYIQING;JIAQIANGYUQUANQIUGEGUODEFANGYIHEZUO,JIAKUAIYIMIAODEYANFAYUGONGGUAN,GONGTONGWEIHUQUANQIUCHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANWENDING;XIESHOUJIANLIYINGDUIMAOYIBAOHUZHUYIDEZHANGXIAOJIZHI;FANGFANJINGWAIYIQINGSHURU,BIMIANYIQINGDIERCIBAOFA。TUIDONGGONGYINGLIANANQUANLINGYU黄金配资 HEZUO,YUZHUYAOMAOYIHUOBANXINGCHENGGONGYINGLIANANQUANLIANHESHENGMING,JIANLIDUOQUDAO、DUOCENGCIGONGYINGLIANANQUANTIXI,TANSUO“GONGYINGLIANFANKONGHUOBANJIHUA”“GONGYINGLIANZIRANZAIHAIYINGDUIJIHUA”DENGHEZUOXINGSHI,XIEZUOCHULIQIANZAIGONGYINGLIANZHONGDUANFENGXIAN。YU黄金配资 HAIGUANZUZHI、黄金配资 HAISHIZUZHI、WANGUOYOUZHENGLIANMENGDENG黄金配资 ZUZHIHEZUO,ZAIHAISHI、HANGYUN、YOUZHENGDENGLINGYUXINGCHENGZHANGXIAOHEZUOJIZHI,GONGJIANKUAQUYUSHENZHIQUANQIUXINGDEFUYOUDANXINGGONGYINGLIAN。GULIWOGUOQIYEJIAKUAI“ZOUCHUQU”BUFA,ZAIQUANQIUFANWEIBUJUGONGYINGLIANBUTONGHUANJIE,GAOXIAOPEIZHIQUANQIUZIYUAN,SHIXIANQUANQIUHUADEYUANLIAOCAIGOU、JIAGONGSHENGCHANHEYUNSHUFENXIAO。ZHICHIXINGYEXIEHUI、GONGYINGLIANHEXINQIYEJISHANGXIAYOUQIYEGONGXIANGGONGYINGLIANFENGXIAN股票配资 ,TONGGUOJIANLIHOUBEIGONGYINGSHANG股票配资 KU、TIGAOGUANJIANLINGBUJIANBIAOZHUNHUACHENGDUDENGCUOSHI,XIETONGZENGQIANGGONGYINGLIANDANXING,TISHENGYINGDUIGONGYINGLIANZHONGDUANFENGXIANNENGLI。

(SAN)JIAKUAIGUANJIANHEXINJISHUYANFA,SHISHIQUANQIUGONGYINGLIANGUOJIAZHANLVE

DALIHONGYANG“LIANGDANYIXING”JINGSHEN,YINGZAOYOULIANGKEYANYUCHUANGXINWENHUAFENWEI,TUIDONGXINGCHENGYOULIANGCHUANGXINSHENGTAI,QIANGHUACHUANGXINZIXIN;YIGUOJIAZHANLVEFAZHANWEIHEXIN,XUANZHUNYANFAGONGGUANFANGXIANG,SHIXIANDONGTAIYOUHUABUJU,JIADADUISHUZIJICHUSHESHIGUANJIANHEXINJISHUGONGGUAN;TONGGUOCAISHUIJINRONGZHENGCE,GULIQIYEHESHEHUIZIJINZIZHUJICHUYANJIU,DUOTUJINGJIADAJICHUYANJIUTOURU。QIANGZHUAXINYILUNKEJIGEMINGHECHANYEBIANGEDAILAIDEJIYU,TUIDONGWOGUOCHANYEXIANGWEIXIAOQUXIANLIANGDUANYANSHEN,TUIDONGWOGUOCHANYEJINRUYANFASHEJI、GONGYINGLIANGUANLI、YINGXIAOFUWUDENGGAOFUJIAZHIHUANJIE。JINYIBUTUIDONGZHIDINGZHONGGUO《QUANQIUGONGYINGLIANANQUANGUOJIAZHANLVE》,BACHANYELIANGONGYINGLIANANQUANSHANGSHENGDAOGUOJIAZHANLVEGAODU,TUIDONGGOUJIANNENGGOUCHENGSHOUWAIBUCHONGJIBINGCONGZHONGXUNSUHUIFUDEQUANQIUGONGYINGLIANXITONG,XINGCHENGZHONGGUOGONGYINGLIANGUOJIAZHANLVEDEZHUYAOKUANGJIAJIEGOU、QUYUBUJU、TUPOZHONGDIAN,BAOCHIZHONGGUOCHANYELIANDEWANBEIXING。

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